Aaron Brown: “To a degree, Nolan won this election by cobbling back together the old line DFL coalitions that failed during the Oberstar campaign. I say "to a degree," because Nolan holds some notable differences from Oberstar. He’s a fan of Social Security and Medicare, a hit with many older voters in the graying corners of the district. But he’s also an economic progressive with a much broader coalition on environmental issues. He won older voters, but he also carried younger voters in Duluth,”

via Minnesota Brown.

KSTP/SurveyUSA: 8th District too close to call. Nolan 47% Cravaack 45% undecided 8%. Margin of Error +-4.1%

— Tom Hauser (@5hauser) November 5, 2012

“I hope the politics of a D or an R behind somebody’s name doesn’t apply,” Cravaack said as he ate lunch at Culver’s in Baxter, in the southwestern part of the vast 8th District. “That’s my hope. But I do realize that I need Democrats to vote for me to win,” via AP/MPR News.

“As the race between incumbent Republican Rep. Chip Cravaack and Democrat Rick Nolan heads into its final days, the amount of outside campaign money being spent in the 8th District has continued its upward trajectory — with nearly $3 million spent in the last two weeks alone.

“The combined $8.6 million spent in outside money from SuperPACs and other groups is the third-largest amount spent on a congressional race in the country, according to Federal Election Commission reports,” via Duluth News Tribune.

“Accelerating spending by outside groups in the final weeks of the 2012 campaign will drive total spending on federal elections this cycle to a record $6 billion, according to a new analysis by the nonpartisan research group Center for Responsive Politics,” reports the LA Times.

“An autism advocate accused Republican Rep. Chip Cravaack on Monday of revealing his son’s autism to get sympathy as he faces questions about his Minnesota ties in a tight congressional race,” via Duluth News Tribune.

An opinion poll by Public Policy Polling of voters in the 8th Congressional District suggests that Rick Nolan leads Chip Cravaack 48% – 44% with 8% of voters still undecided.

“At least one Duluth television station has decided to pull a political ad from its airtime schedule after a complaint from a candidate in the 8th District congressional race. The ad makes claims about U.S. Rep. Chip Cravaack’s Minnesota residency status and a vote he made in Congress,” reports the Duluth News Tribune.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHh5VpnzmkY

(more…)

MinnPost’s David Brauer shot holes in the recent Star Tribune poll that gave former Rep. Rick Nolan (DFL) a 7-point lead on incumbent Rep. Chip Cravack (R) in Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District. His central concerns about the poll; 1) it was conducted over a single day 2) respondents were landline only. Read the takedown at MinnPost.

“Voters in northern Minnesota may be ready to return a Democrat to Congress next month, a potential setback for Republicans who captured the U.S. House seat for the first time in seven decades in a national GOP wave two years ago.

“DFL challenger Rick Nolan, who last served in Congress in 1981, leads freshman Republican Chip Cravaack 50 percent to 43 percent, according to a poll of likely voters in the Eighth Congressional District conducted last week for the Star Tribune.

“That’s a lead of seven percentage points for an underfunded challenger in a nationally watched race that has drawn more than $4 million in spending by the national parties and outside interest groups. Seven percent of the 1,000 people contacted by the poll remain undecided,” reports the Star Tribune.

The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3%. The Cravaack campaign disputes the poll’s findings.

MinnPost’s media writer David Brauer also raised a couple of specific concerns about the polls.

Not-so-great thing about Strib CD survey: it’s a one-day poll (a Tuesday, in this case). Better polls multi-day. startribune.com/politics/state…

— David Brauer (@dbrauer) October 22, 2012

Holy moley. Strib congressional pollster weights by partisan ID. That should be an output, not an input. pulseopinionresearch.com/Methodology

— David Brauer (@dbrauer) October 22, 2012

“One of the closest congressional races in the country also has become one of the most expensive.

“Minnesota’s 8th District race between incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Chip Cravaack of North Branch and Democrat Rick Nolan of Crosby has recorded the sixth-highest spending by outside groups among all House races in the country so far this season — nearing $5.6 million as of Monday,” reports Duluth News Tribune.

Photo: Bowzer via Bowzer Party
8th district candidate Rick Nolan irked the organizer of the Duluth Senior Expo by campaigning during the annual gathering of seniors. Nolan and a small campaign entourage that included Jon “Bowzer” Bauman of Sha Na Na fame paid for tickets to enter the event, but didn’t pay for a vendor booth like his opponent, Rep. Chip Cravaack, did.

Everything was fine until Bowzer started serenading likely voters and talking about his opposition to Medicare vouchers.

Event organizer Tracy Lundeen tells Business North that the rules are clear: if you are selling something at the event, you need to pay for a booth.

“According to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics, more than a dozen groups have spent $3.9 million to influence voters in the district, one of the most competitive in the nation,” reports MPR News.